CIO: Monday Preview — Top 3 Setups for the Week
Executive Summary
Three high-conviction setups heading into the week of Feb 23. SCOTUS tariff ruling provides a tailwind for risk assets, while NVDA earnings Wednesday is the binary event.
Setup #1: Long ES via Cash-Secured Puts (High Conviction)
COT regime LONG at z-score 1.22 with +52K w/w inflow. SCOTUS tariff relief provides tailwind. Sell 6,850 puts for Feb 27 expiry to capture NVDA vol crush.
Setup #2: Long ZC via Cash-Secured Puts (Medium-High Conviction)
COT turning — managed money covering shorts aggressively (+15K w/w). Price approaching Elliott Wave 5 terminal target. Sell 415 puts.
Setup #3: Short CL via Bear Call Spreads (Medium Conviction)
COT z-score -0.93 and deteriorating. Price at upper BB with RSI near 67. Sell 68/70 call spreads. Risk: Iran escalation.
This is research and commentary, not trading advice.
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