DESK NOTES

Research, analysis, and market commentary from the TraderStan desk.

SUNDAY · FEBRUARY 22, 2026

FedWatch: Market Prices 75% Chance of June Cut macro, fed, rates Fed funds futures now imply a 75% probability of a 25bp cut at the June FOMC meeting. Natural Gas Bounces Off $2.95 Support energy, natgas NG finds support at the $2.95 level with DeMark buy setup building toward potential exhaustion. Oil Crowd All-In Long Into OPEC energy, oil, positioning COT data shows managed money net long +63.8K contracts. We walk through why positioning is crowded and how to fade it.

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