Oil Crowd All-In Long Into OPEC
The Setup
Managed money is net long +63.8K contracts in crude oil — the highest since Q3 2025. The z-score sits at -0.93, meaning this is a SHORT regime with confirmed price divergence.
What the COT Data Shows
- Net long: +63.8K (declining -15K w/w)
- Z-score: -0.93 (3-year percentile)
- Commercial hedgers: increasing shorts
The Trade
Price is stretched at the upper Bollinger Band ($66.88) with RSI approaching 70. DeMark sell setup at count 3 — no exhaustion signal yet, but building.
Fade rallies above $67 toward R1 $66.98. Support at 9-EMA $64.62.
This is research and commentary, not trading advice.
Disclaimer
The content on this page is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or commodity. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Full Disclaimer & Terms →