FedWatch: Market Prices 75% Chance of June Cut
Current Pricing
Fed funds futures for June 2026 imply a 75% probability of at least one 25bp rate cut. This is up from 60% a week ago, driven by the SCOTUS tariff ruling and softening labor data.
Key Levels
- Current Fed Funds rate: 4.50-4.75%
- June implied rate: 4.25-4.50%
- 10Y-2Y spread: +42bps (steepening)
Implications
The steepening yield curve and rising cut probability favor duration longs and cyclical equity exposure. Watch Waller’s speech next week for confirmation.
This is research and commentary, not trading advice.
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