CIO Q1 2026 Outlook: Every Call Graded

January 15, 2026

Q1 2026 Scorecard

A transparent review of every call made in the Q1 CIO outlook.

Winners

Long GC from $4,800 → $5,080 (+5.8%)
Short CL from $72 → $66 (bear call spreads, +$3,200/lot)
Long ES puts pre-tariff announcement (+45%)

Losses

Long NG from $3.50 → stopped at $2.95 (-15.7%)
Long ZC from 445 → 427 (-4.0%)

Lessons

Position sizing saved us on NG. The thesis was right (weather) but timing was early. Always respect stops.

This is research and commentary, not trading advice.

Disclaimer
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